Abstract
In this study, 11 extreme precipitation indices were selected to examine the spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation in the Poyang Lake Basin during 1960–2017. The responses of extreme precipitation indices to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of different Pacific Ocean areas were further investigated. The results show that the temperature in the Poyang Lake Basin has increased significantly since the 1990s, and the inter-decadal precipitation fluctuated. Most extreme precipitation indices showed an increasing trend with abrupt changes occurring around 1991. Spatially, most of the extreme precipitation indices decreased from northeast to southwest. The increasing trend of most indices in the center and south of the basin was relatively prominent. The linear correlations between the extreme precipitation indices and Nino 1 + 2 were the most significant. On the timescale of 2–6 years, a common oscillation period between the extreme precipitation of the basin and the four ENSO indices can be observed. After 2010, the positive correlation between the precipitation of the Poyang Lake Basin and the SST (sea surface temperature) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific increased significantly. Additionally, annual total wet–day precipitation in most areas of the Poyang Lake Basin increased with varying degrees in warm ENSO years. The results of this study will improve the understanding of the complex background and driving mechanism of flood disasters in the Poyang Lake Basin.
Highlights
IntroductionThe 5th IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Assessment Report indicates that the global mean surface temperature increased by about 0.85 ◦ C from 1880–2012, which is accompanied by a general trend of extremes in precipitation events [1]
Annual total wet–day precipitation in most areas of the Poyang Lake Basin increased with varying degrees in warm El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years
ENSO generally affects precipitation in China by influencing the strength of the East Asian monsoon, and the impact of ENSO events varies at different stages [11,12,13,14]
Summary
The 5th IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Assessment Report indicates that the global mean surface temperature increased by about 0.85 ◦ C from 1880–2012, which is accompanied by a general trend of extremes in precipitation events [1]. Secondary disasters such as rainstorm, flood and mudslides caused by extreme precipitation events have serious impacts on human life, social development and natural ecosystems, and have attracted extensive attention in the international community [2]. The occurrence of ENSO events often causes severe climate anomalies, triggering serious meteorological and hydrological disasters around the world and causing huge social and economic losses
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