Changes in vulnerability of global container shipping networks before and after the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

To explore the changes in vulnerability of global container shipping networks before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, this study presents a novel method for identifying the critical collapse point of the global container shipping network based on geospatial connectivity changes and network collapse process under the deliberate attack. Additionally, we propose a quantitative approach to assess the trends and degree of changes in network vulnerability. To accomplish this, we construct the global container shipping network for 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2021, utilizing port and route statistics of the top 100 global container liner companies for analysis. The outcomes indicate that the global container shipping network's tolerance to deliberate attacks was 7.98%, 8.52%, 9.57%, and 9.72% in 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2021, respectively, implying that the global container shipping network continued its trend of gradual strengthening before the COVID-19 pandemic, but with a relatively low change in tolerance of 1.57%. The factors influencing the changing vulnerability of the global container shipping network before and after the COVID-19 pandemic include declining port efficiency, shorter and more trans-regional routes, and retaliatory increases in global container shipping trade. Ultimately, we provide relevant policy recommendations to continuously secure the global container shipping network's interconnectivity.