Abstract
Coastal settlements worldwide have suffered significant damage and loss to tsunami hazards in the last few decades. This period coincides with socio-economic changes that have heightened spatio-temporal risk through increased coastal development and infrastructure. In this study, we apply a spatio-temporal loss model to quantify the changes in direct economic losses to residential buildings from tsunami hazards over a 20-year period in Omaha Beach, New Zealand. The approach reconstructed temporal urban settlement patterns (1992, 1996, 2006 and 2012) for an area potentially exposed to regional source tsunami inundation hazard. Synthetic depth–damage functions for specific building classes were applied to estimate temporal damage and loss from tsunami inundation exposure at each building location. Temporal loss estimates were reported for a range of risk metrics, including probable maximum loss, loss exceedance and average annual loss. The results showed that an increase in the number of buildings and changes to building design (i.e., storeys, floor area, foundations) influenced the increasing risk to direct economic loss over the study period. These increases were driven by conversion from rural to urban land use since 1996. The spatio-temporal method presented in this study can be adapted to analyse changing risk patterns and trends for coastal settlements to inform future tsunami mitigation measures and manage direct economic losses.
Highlights
Tsunamis have caused frequent loss of life and damage to buildings and infrastructure along exposed and vulnerable coastlines in the last few decades
The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (IOT) and the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (GEJET) demonstrate the catastrophic potential for economic loss and loss of life when coastal settlements are exposed to tsunami [3]
This study demonstrates changing risk of direct economic loss to buildings from tsunami hazard at Omaha Beach, New Zealand
Summary
Tsunamis have caused frequent loss of life and damage to buildings and infrastructure along exposed and vulnerable coastlines in the last few decades. Driven by increasing social and economic demand to live, work and holiday in coastal areas, has intensified building and infrastructure development in these locations [1,2]. Development intensification has exacerbated population and financial exposure to coastal flood hazards, including tsunami. Risk analysis informs disaster risk managers of the potential consequences from future natural hazard events, providing a basis for making risk-informed decisions regarding land-use development [4]. Risk is often expressed in disaster management as the potential physical, absolute or relative socio-economic losses for single or multiple event scenarios over a specified time period [5,6]
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