Abstract
Expansive soils go through significant volume changes due to seasonal moisture variations resulting in ground movements. The ground movement related problems are likely to worsen in the future due to climate change. It is important to understand and incorporate likely future changes in design to ensure the resilience of structures built on such soils. However, there has been a limited amount of work quantifying the effect of climate change on expansive soils movement and related behaviour of structures. The Thornthwaite Moisture Index (TMI) is one of the commonly used climate classifiers in quantifying the effect of atmospheric boundary on soil behaviour. Using the long-term weather data and predicted future changes under different emission scenarios, a series of TMI maps are developed for South Australia. Potential changes in ground movement are then estimated for a selected area using a simplified methodology where the effect of future climate is captured through changes in TMI. Results indicate that South Australia is likely to face a significant reduction in TMI under all emission scenarios considered in this study. The changes in TMI will lead to a considerable increase in potential ground movement which will influence the behaviour of structures built on them and in some areas may lead to premature failure if not considered in the design.
Highlights
South Australia is the driest state on the driest inhabited continent in the world
Cai and Cowan [2] indicated climate change is responsible for a 20% reduction in rainfall during winter since the 1960s and with the possibility of increased greenhouse gases resulting in even greater rates of rainfall reduction in the future [5]
In most areas of South Australia, the rainfall is expected to decrease in all seasons of the year, with the maximum reduction expected in winter and spring
Summary
South Australia is the driest state on the driest inhabited continent in the world. The climate here has been going through quantifiable changes since the 1960s. 30% of Australia’s surface soil can be classified as reactive ( known as expansive soils) These soils go through significant volume change due to changes in moisture content resulting in ground movement, which can influence the safety and serviceability of the structures built on them. Several past studies [39,40,41] have investigated the influence of atmospheric boundary interaction and climate change on the behaviour of lightweight structures such as road pavements on expansive soils. A series of ground movement maps are produced representing current and different future climate scenarios The consequence of these changes is discussed using a simplified footing design example
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