Changes in the U.S. trade specialization: Projections to the year 2000

Abstract

In this article,factor endowment models of exports and imports are estimated for 46 industries that span the traded goods sector. The regressions are estimated for a pooled sample of 30 countries during the period 1968–1984. Time-series techniques are used to project the endowment vector for the United States, and the projected endowment profile is then combined with the estimated parameters to generate forecasts of the trade pattern for the year 2000. Input-output coefficients are then used to analyze the implications of the trade forecasts for employment in each industry.