Changes in the structure of the Polish energy mix in the transition period to ensure the safety and reliability of energy supplies

Abstract

The share of renewable sources in energy production in Poland is increasing steadily, but the reliability of energy supplies is determined primarily by stable sources, i.e. the coal-fired power units now in operation. The paper compares the current energy mix of the Polish power generation system with other European countries, drawing attention to the dominant role of coal-fired sources in Poland. Recent-year changes in the structure of the energy system are presented, along with the changes planned to ensure reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. It is demonstrated that the planned changes in the energy mix will significantly deteriorate the level of reliability of energy supplies in subsequent years of transition. Variants are presented of necessary adjustments in the planned energy mix in the system, which will make it possible to meet the growing national demand for energy and ensure the required level of the energy system reliability. Several variants of the system expansion are considered, including gas-fired units, onshore and offshore wind farms, photovoltaic sources and a slower rate of decommissioning the coal-fired power units retrofitted with CO2 capture facilities. The most favourable solution for the system reconstruction is to increase the share of all the above-mentioned energy sources.