Changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of dry/wet abrupt alternation frequency, duration, and severity in Mainland China, 1980–2019

Abstract

Changes in extreme events have received increasing attention in the context of climate change. Extreme changes in wet and dry events due to changes in meteorological elements, such as the spatial and temporal redistribution of precipitation and temperature increases, are extreme weather events that have attracted much attention in recent years. In contrast, there is a relative lack of research on extreme compound events that focuses on a transition between wet and dry spells in adjacent months. This paper provides maps of the frequency, duration, and severity of national-scale dry wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) events for 1980–1999 and 2000–2019, aiming to obtain information regarding events in the hotspot areas of DWAA in China during the past four decades in order to analyze their change patterns. This paper performs station-based standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) calculations to characterize local wet and dry spells based on meteorological observations provided by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) since 1980 with regional analyses based on seven geographic divisions of China. Our finding explicitly discloses the “more-less-more” DWAA variation pattern from North to South China. Additionally, the changes in frequency, duration, and severity in the different regions are revealed. The frequency, duration, and severity of DW increased from 5.08 to 6.74, 17.71 to 24.62, and 12.51 to 17.01, respectively, an increase of 32.53%, 39.04% and 36.01%, while the corresponding WD only increased by 9.45%, 15.22% and 13.51%. In addition, events with a higher severity of DWAA are prone to appear in most regions due to the increasing interval between heavy rainfall and the increase in precipitation under global warming.