Changes in the Spatiotemporal of Net Primary Productivity in the Conventional Lake Chad Basin between 2001 and 2020 Based on CASA Model

Abstract

Accurate estimation of vegetation Net Primary Productivity (NPP) has important theoretical and practical significance for ecological environment governance, carbon cycle research, and the rational development and utilization of natural resources. In this study, the spatial characteristics, temporal changes, and driving factors of NPP in the Conventional Lake Chad Basin (CLCB) were based on MODIS data by constructing a Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) model and using a combination of Residual trends (RESTREND) and correlation analysis. The results showed that from 2001 to 2020, the NPP of the CLCB decreased annually (1.14 g C/m2), mainly because of overgrazing, deforestation, and large-scale irrigation. We conducted a driving factor analysis and found that the main influencing factor of the NPP of the CLCB is high-intensity human activities, including farmland reclamation and animal husbandry. Although the impact of climate change on NPP is not obvious in the short term, climate change may help recover NPP in the long term. The continued reduction in NPP has greatly increased the difficulty of regreening the Sahel; the increase in population density and rapid urbanization have led are major contributing factors to this. Our findings have important implications for the continued implementation of stringent revegetation policies. However, owing to limited data and methods, only the overall change trend of NPP was obtained, and comprehensive follow-up studies are needed.