CHANGES IN THE PRODUCTION OF RAPESEED IN POLAND AFTER ACCESSION TO THE EUROPEAN UNION

Abstract

The aim of this study was to evaluate changes on the Polish rapeseed market after accession to the European Union (EU). Special attention was paid to the demand, supply, and prices of rapeseed in Poland relative to other EU member states. The performance of the rapeseed sector was analyzed based on market data for 2005-2022. Changes on the Polish rapeseed market were assessed with the use of descriptive statistics, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, and the ARiMA model. In Poland, rapeseed production is spatially diverse and dominates in the western and northern Polish provinces. The largest rapeseed area in 2022 was recorded in the following voivodeships: Lower Silesia (129.1 thousand ha), Wielkopolska (104 thousand ha) and West Pomerania (115.5 thousand ha). In the years 2005-2022 there were changes in the plans and harvest of rapeseed in Poland. The highest rapeseed yields were recorded in 2014 (34.4 dt/ha), 2022 (33.8 dt/ha) and 2021 (32.1 dt/ha), while the lowest in 2011 (22.4 dt/ha) and 2010 (23.6 dt/ha). The harvest were the largest in 2014 (3,275.8 thousand tons) and 2022 (3,643.4 thousand tons). Poland is an important producer of rapeseed in the EU and in 2022 it ranked third (3,300 thousand tons), after France (4,506 thousand tons) and Germany (4,295 thousand tons). Statistical analysis showed changes in the area, yields and harvest of rapeseed. The highest coefficient of variation was recorded for rapeseed harvest (0.236) and the lowest for yields (0.115). In the case of area, yields and harvests, the coefficient of variation was high, which proves the non-stationarity of the time series. The forecast developed for the years 2023-2027 showed downward trends for the area, yields and harvest of rapeseed.