Abstract
Vanilla planifolia is the most widely cultivated species for obtaining natural vanilla. In Mexico, vanilla production has decreased due to negative effects of climate change. We evaluate the current, potential, and future of vanilla cultivation areas in Mexico using bioclimatic models with distinct climate change scenarios (intermediate emissions, temperature rise of 1.1 to 2.6 °C, and high emissions from 2.6 to 4.8 °C, to 2050 and 2070), in order to understand the magnitude of future distribution changes and propose future management strategies. We found that the areas with greatest potential for establishment of V. planifolia are northern Veracruz state bordering the state of Puebla (the Totonacapan region) and northeast Oaxaca state. In the models, the most relevant environmental variable were mean temperature and precipitation of the driest quarter. The average projections for 2050 and 2070 show a progressive reduction in the potential area for the species (−1.6 and −17.3%). However, the Totonacapan region maintains the largest ideal cultivation area, while that of northeast Oaxaca is reduced by 50%. These results show the need to redesign the strategies of agricultural production of vanilla, through sustainable and climate-smart agricultural production strategies as well as a national strategy for conservation of genetic diversity.
Highlights
A database was built for the distribution of vanilla (V. planifolia) crops and collection sites in Mexico based on review of data records from the World Biodiversity Information Network (REMIB for its acronym in Spanish) of the Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad (CONABIO), Tropicos database of the Missouri
The model indicates that the area with the greatest potential for the establishment of V. planifolia is the northern Veracruz state, adjacent to the state of Puebla, the Totonacapan region, in addition to northeast Oaxaca (Figure 2)
In our study we confirm that the current potential distribution of V. planifolia is associated with tropical humid ecosystems of southeastern Mexico
Summary
Academic Editor: Roberto MancinelliRising temperature and changes in precipitation patterns (more pronounced periods of drought and torrential rain) caused by climate change represent an enormous challenge for agriculture worldwide [1,2]. The negative effects on agriculture vary across the world, tropical and subtropical zones will be the most affected in the medium term by rising temperatures during the growing season, which could reach the greatest extremes registered between 1900 and 2006 [3]. This increase in temperature may cause water and heat stress in crops, reduce productivity, and increase the incidence of pests and pathogens [4]. One of the crops most sensitive to temperature changes is vanilla [9].
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