Changes in the pattern of valvular heart disease following the epidemiological transition in Brazil from 1990 to 2019: data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

Abstract

Abstract Introduction Valvular heart disease is one of the leading causes of cardiovascular death in Brazil, with a great contribution of Rheumatic Heart Disease (RHD), the most socially driven etiology. However, as socioeconomic conditions improved, an increasing contribution of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease (NRVD) is being observed. Objectives We aimed to evaluate the changes in trends of prevalence, mortality and burden of RHD and non-rheumatic valvular heart disease in Brazil from 1990 to 2019, according to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study estimates. Methods We used available vital registration data, epidemiological survey data, and hospital claims data to estimate the cause-specific mortality rate, prevalence, and burden of RHD and NRVD using the GBD modelling framework. Burden estimates in Brazil were estimated for each sex, 5-year age group, federal unit, and year from 1990 to 2019. We also explored the correlation of disease burden and the sociodemographic index (SDI). Results From 1990 to 2019, age-standardized prevalence of RHD increased slightly (2.1% (95%UI 0.2–4.0)) in Brazil, from 899.6 (95%UI 699.8–1119.1) to 918.5 (95%UI 716–1142.5) per 100,000, remaining higher in women in the whole period. In contrast, age-standardized prevalence of NRVD had a marked 54.3% increase from 25.3 (95% UI 22.4–27.8) per 100,000 in 1990 to 39 (95% UI 33.9–44.6) per 100,000 in 2019. The percent change was considerably higher for men compared to women (105.9% vs. 20.9%). For mortality, age-standardized rates attributable to RHD significantly decreased 59.4%, from 2.8 (95%UI 2.7–3.0) to 1.2 (95%UI 1.1–1.2) per 100,000, whereas NRVD had a less pronounced 16.2% decrease in the period. However, crude NRVD mortality increased (51.9% (95%UI 39.8–62.7)), with a considerable contribution of older ages, noticeably over 70 years (17.2% (95%UI 5.4–27.4)), specifically driven by calcific aortic valve disease mortality, with a marked 17% (95%UI 2.0–38.5) increase in the elderly. RHD dropped from 12th to 10th in the mortality ranking, while aortic and mitral degenerative diseases rose in the period (Figure 1). There was a significant negative correlation between the percent change in age-standardized RHD mortality rates and SDI in 1990 (r=−0.41, p=0.03) and in 2019 (r=−0.44, p=0.02), and an opposite trend for NRVD, with positive correlations in 1990 (r=−0.55, p=0.003), and 2019 (r=−0.58, p=0.001), suggesting that SDI was a major driver for the observed trends. Conclusion Mortality and disease burden attributable to RHD decreased significantly in Brazil over the past decades, still with a stable prevalence trend. This contrasts with increasing prevalence and crude mortality estimates for NRVD, especially in older ages, and driven by degenerative conditions. Changes in mortality rates strongly correlated with SDI, depicting the effects of socioeconomic markers of the pattern of valve disease in Brazil. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): This study used data from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. This work was supported by the Brazilian Ministry of Health through resource transfer from the National Health Fund. Figure 1. Ranking of mortality rates.