Changes in the mean and variability of temperature and precipitation over global land areas

Abstract

The frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events may change in response to shifts in the mean and variability of climate, which pose high risks to societies and natural ecosystems. Gridded near-surface temperature, precipitation, and the number of wet days from the Climatic Research Unit dataset were analyzed for two 30 year periods to explore changes in the mean and variability of temperature and precipitation over global land areas in the recent period (1991–2020) compared to the reference period (1951–1980). Global land areas are characterized by warmer and slightly wetter conditions in the recent period, while the variability of temperature and precipitation has remained nearly unchanged. Changes in the mean and variability of both temperature and precipitation are also analyzed over tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude land areas. The annual mean temperature over all these three latitudinal regions has increased in the recent period compared to the reference period, with the highest increase in subtropical and midlatitude land areas (0.7 ∘C), followed by tropical land areas (0.5 ∘C), while temperature variability has remained nearly unchanged. The annual precipitation has decreased over tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude land areas in the recent period compared to the reference period. Precipitation variability has not changed considerably over subtropical land areas. However, it has substantially increased over tropical land areas, which indicates a higher risk of droughts and periods of excess water in the recent period. In contrast, precipitation variability has decreased over midlatitude land areas, indicating narrower swings between wet and dry conditions, which decrease the risk of droughts and periods of excess water in the recent period.