Changes in the international monetary system: opportunities and risks for the US dollar

Abstract

In the 1940s, the US dollar was established as an international currency. Since then, its position has been practically unchallenged. However, in light of the financial crisis of 2008, the strengthening of the Chinese and European economies, and the COVID-19 pandemic, it is necessary to reflect on the future balance of power in the international monetary system. To this end, this article poses the following research question: is the US dollar facing a threat to its leading position in the global arena? First, I describe the historical currency system and the position of the dollar after the 2008 crisis; next I analyze the pandemic up through the end of June 2020. Then, I consider three possible scenarios for the dollar. First, it is possible to create a new global currency which would consist of a basket of the five most important world currencies. The second option is to replace the dollar with another currency, especially the euro or the renminbi. The third and most probable scenario is the compresence of several competing national currencies in international trade. Abandoning the dollar is possible, but it would require significant financial and institutional changes. This means that in the absence of any easy solutions for dethroning the US currency, it will remain the world’s leading currency.