Changes in the duration of economic expansions and contractions in the United States

Abstract

This paper employs nonparametric change–point tests to business cycle duration data in the United States. The findings are consistent with recent studies citing longer expansions and shorter contractions since World War II. However, it is found that these shifts occurred much earlier. There is evidence of a single abrupt change–point to longer expansions that occurred in 1929. The shift towards shorter contractions was gradual: the transition began in 1918 and was completed in 1938.