Changes in the Activity of the Madden–Julian Oscillation during 1958–2004

Abstract

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent mode of tropical intraseasonal variability. This study investigates the following questions. Is there statistical evidence of linear trends in MJO activity since the mid-1970s? Does the MJO exhibit changes in regimes of high and low activity? Are there significant seasonal differences in the activity of the MJO on time scales longer than interannual? Positive linear trends are observed in zonal wind anomalies at 200 (U200) and 850 (U850) hPa during summer and winter seasons. Positive trends are also observed in the number of summer MJO events. Resampling statistical tests indicate that positive trends in summer U200 and U850 anomalies are statistically different from random occurrences at a 5% significance level. A methodology based on the number of events is used to characterize low-frequency (LF) changes in MJO activity. Mean winter LF activity was characterized by nearly uniform variability from the early 1960s until the mid-1990s. In contrast, mean summer LF changes showed a regime of high activity from the mid-1960s until the late 1970s, a low regime from 1980 to 1988, and a regime of high activity from the early 1990s to early 2000. Fourier analysis of the mean summer LF index indicates that regimes of high MJO activity were separated by 18.5 yr. The substantial changes in summer MJO regimes do not appear to be related to increases in observational samplings due to satellite-derived winds assimilated in the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. Monte Carlo experiments indicate that the observed changes in regimes of MJO activity in summer are statistically different from random occurrences at the 10% significance level only.