Changes in Task Uncertainty Induced by Zero‐Base Budgeting: Using the Thompson and Hirst Models to Predict Dysfunctional Behaviour

Abstract

Generic budgeting systems such as PPBS and Zero‐Based Budgeting (ZBB) are criticized by academics for failing to give consideration to some of the key variables affecting behaviour in budgeting endeavours. Despite this criticism, the literature has devoted little attention to modifications that can be made to make the systems more responsive to different configurations of organizational variables. This paper addresses this oversight in regard to ZBB. In particular the paper discusses ZBB within the context of two variables: (a) the degree of task uncertainty engendered by the system and (b) the character of performance measures used to evaluate units that employ ZBB. The paper argues that ZBB materially increases the degree of task uncertainty. Configured with the type of performance measures used to evaluate departments employing ZBB, the paper maintains that the increase in task uncertainty creates incentives to engage in dysfunctional behaviour, largely in the form of invalid data reporting. It is hypothesized that this problem may be responsible for the general failure of ZBB to lead to large budget re‐allocations.