Changes in subjective mortality expectations and savings during COVID-19: empirical analysis using questionnaire data in Japan

Abstract

ABSTRACT The COVID-19 pandemic may make people feel that they are likely to die in the near future. This study investigates how COVID-19 influences subjective mortality expectations and savings behaviour. We conducted a questionnaire survey in Japan with 2500 individuals, aged 20–79 years, who were working or whose spouses were working in January 2021. We empirically analysed the effect of an increase in subjective mortality on savings using the questionnaire response data. According to the questionnaire aggregation 33% of the respondents perceived an increase in the possibility of death because of COVID-19. Our empirical results, based on an instrumental variable method that considers the endogeneity of subjective mortality, show that increases in subjective mortality expectations due to COVID-19 have decreased savings. Therefore, the pandemic has decreased individuals’ motivation for saving, to a certain extent, owing to their heightened subjective mortality. Moreover, the experience of serious accidents negatively affects savings, whereas that of disasters has no significant effect.