Changes in storm surges based on a bias-adjusted reconstruction dataset from 1900 to 2010

Abstract

To increase our understanding of multidecadal and longer-term variations in storm surges around the world, we require long-term and trustworthy data. The quantile delta mapping method was used to rectify the statistical biases of storm surge levels using data-driven methodologies to produce high-quality data on long-term storm surge levels. The results showed that the bias-adjusted surge levels were better than those from the raw ERA-20C reconstruction. Bias-adjusted surge levels indicated that most tide gauges globally showed an overall positive trend from 1900 to 2010, and more extreme storm surges occurred after the 1960s. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been identified as one of the key climate patterns influencing storm surges globally, especially at tide gauges around the Pacific Ocean coast in North America, the northwestern Atlantic Ocean, and the Mediterranean Sea. At regions of the Mediterranean Sea, northwestern Atlantic, and Pacific in North America, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) were significantly negatively correlated with storm surge. In contrast, the storm surges along the coast of northern Europe were considerably positively correlated with the AO. Storm surges were positively correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) at various tide gauges along the Mediterranean coasts, the northwestern Atlantic and Pacific coasts of North America.