Changes in shares outstanding and country stock returns around the world

Abstract

Motivated by stock-level evidence of the issuance anomalies, we examine whether a similar effect drives the cross-section of country stock returns. To this end, we investigate six decades of data from 67 markets. The changes in aggregate shares outstanding negatively predict future country equity returns. The quintile of markets with the highest share increase underperforms their low-issuance counterparts by 0.85 % per month. The effect is distinctly robust and cannot be subsumed by known risk factors. The observed pattern complies with the mispricing interpretation, and high arbitrage constraints augment its magnitude. Finally, the issuance premium may be harvested with exchange-traded funds, paving the way for a viable country selection strategy.