Changes in Share Prices of Macrosector Companies on the Warsaw Stock Exchange as a Reaction to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

The crisis caused by the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic had an impact on the economic situation worldwide, including the stock exchange quotations. The aim of the research is to assess the reaction to crisis situations of share prices of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (Poland) belonging to three main macrosectors: Industry, Finance and Services. The main part of the analysis concerns the market reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic during its first wave. The study utilises the survival analysis methods, which allowed for an assessment and comparison of the situation of the three macrosectors. The duration of the decline in share prices and the recovery time were analysed. The intensity and probability of the decline and subsequent increase in share prices were also examined. The Kaplan–Meier estimator, Cox regression model and logit model were used in the study. The pandemic shocks differed significantly from shocks caused by economic crises in the past. We showed that the differences for macro-sector share price declines were statistically insignificant. For price increases, the Finance macrosector differed from the other macrosectors. The probability, intensity and odds of an increase in share prices of companies belonging to this macrosector were lower than for the other macrosectors. In addition, we compared the obtained results with the results of previous studies conducted for the period of the financial crisis in 2008–2009 and the bear market in 2011. We pointed out the differences between the crisis caused by the pandemic and the other crises.