Abstract
The long-term high sex ratio at birth (SRB) is a serious issue in China. In this study, changes in SRB were decomposed into variations in SRB by birth order and compositional changes in female births by birth order. With SRB data from China's surveys and censuses, and SRB data from South Korea's vital registration and censuses from 1980-2015, the trend and decomposition results in SRB were compared between China and South Korea, and the decomposition results for urban and rural SRBs, and for provinces, are presented. In both China and South Korea the rise in the SRB was driven by a rise in the SRB at all birth orders, which was only partly counteracted by the change in the distribution of births by order. The overall rise in the SRB ended when there was a decline in the SRB at second birth or above in South Korea. In China the total effect of variations in SRB of all birth orders increased more for the rural population than for the urban population before 2000, resulting in a higher total SRB for rural than urban population. After 2000, the total effect of variations in SRB of all birth orders lowered the total SRB for the rural population, whereas the effect of compositional change increased the total SRB, leading to a very slight rise in the total SRB for the rural population. At the province level, there was no spatial autocorrelation for the changes in total SRB by province, the total effect of variations in SRB of all birth orders or the effect of compositional change. The effect of variations in SRB by birth order accounted for the majority of changes in total SRB in most provinces.
Highlights
China, the world’s most populous country, has had a higher than normal sex ratio at birth (SRB: ratio of live male births to female births, usually calculated by the number of boys to 100 girls) since the early 1980s
Through decomposition of changes in SRB based on birth order difference, the following conclusions can be drawn
During the rise and fall of the SRB in South Korea, the total effect of variations in SRB of all birth orders dominated the change in total SRB
Summary
The world’s most populous country, has had a higher than normal sex ratio at birth (SRB: ratio of live male births to female births, usually calculated by the number of boys to 100 girls) since the early 1980s. The normal range of SRB is between 102 and 107. The 1982 population census displayed an incipient rise in SRB, and the subsequent census data witnessed a rising tendency. Since 2000, the SRB has stabilized at around 120 male births per 100 female births. The high SRB and its potential implications have aroused considerable controversy in China itself (Jiang et al, 2011)
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