Changes in seismicity pattern due to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence and implications for improving the foreshock traffic-light system

Abstract

Crustal deformation due to the 2016 earthquake sequence in Kumamoto, Japan, that culminated in a preceding earthquake of magnitude M6.5 and a subsequent M7.3 earthquake 28 h later, caused stress perturbation on and around the causative Futagawa-Hinagu fault zone. Monitoring changes in seismicity pattern along this zone plays a role in understanding the process before and after major earthquakes. For this purpose, stress-dependent laws in statistical seismology can be used: the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size law and the Omori-Utsu aftershock-decay law. We review the results obtained by using these laws in previous studies to show a zone of high stress near the eventual epicenters of the M6.5 and M7.3 earthquakes before the start of the Kumamoto sequence, and after it, showing a decreasing trend in stress along the Futagawa-Hinagu fault zone. Detailed analysis suggests aseismic slips along the causative fault zone. The aseismic preslip locally reduced stress just prior to the M7.3 earthquake near its epicenter. Recently, a system was proposed by Gulia and Wiemer (2019) that utilizes the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size law to judge, immediately after a large earthquake, whether it was the mainshock or a foreshock to a future event. Based on the reviewed results and our new results, further research that takes into account the spatial variation of frequency-size distribution, allowing the exploration of the possibility of a local preslip of a future nearby earthquake, is needed to improve this system.