Abstract
Efforts to change behaviour are critical in minimizing the spread of highly transmissible pandemics such as COVID-19. However, it is unclear whether individuals are aware of disease risk and alter their behaviour early in the pandemic. We investigated risk perception and self-reported engagement in protective behaviours in 1591 United States-based individuals cross-sectionally and longitudinally over the first week of the pandemic. Subjects demonstrated growing awareness of risk and reported engaging in protective behaviours with increasing frequency but underestimated their risk of infection relative to the average person in the country. Social distancing and hand washing were most strongly predicted by the perceived probability of personally being infected. However, a subgroup of individuals perceived low risk and did not engage in these behaviours. Our results highlight the importance of risk perception in early interventions during large-scale pandemics.
Highlights
The genesis of COVID-19 has been tied to the Hubei province of China, and it rapidly progressed from local epidemic to the royalsocietypublishing.org/journal/rsos R
It is difficult to determine exactly how widespread the pandemic will be in the United States, estimates reported in the media when data were collected suggested that up to 80% of the population may contract the disease [4]
Understanding how psychological factors influence behaviour in severe, global pandemics such as COVID-19 is key to facilitating disease minimization strategies
Summary
The genesis of COVID-19 has been tied to the Hubei province of China, and it rapidly progressed from local epidemic to the royalsocietypublishing.org/journal/rsos R. A major focus of authorities in the United States, and in other countries, has been to minimize transmission of the virus in order to flatten the epidemic peak and lessen the impact on healthcare services [4,5]. This is critical in the case of COVID-19 due to its high transmissibility—even in the absence of symptoms [6,7]—combined with its severity [4] and mortality rate, among older individuals [5]. These measures rely on rapid changes in population behaviour, which are dependent on individuals’ ability to perceive risks associated with the virus and adapt their behaviour [8]
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