Changes in Rice and Livestock Production and the Potential Emergence of Japanese Encephalitis in Africa.

Abstract

The known distribution of Japanese encephalitis (JE) is limited to Asia and Australasia. However, autochthonous transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus was reported in Africa for the first time in 2016. Reasons for the current geographic restriction of JE and the circumstances that may permit emergence in non-endemic areas are not well known. Here, I assess potential changes in vector breeding habitat and livestock production in Africa that are conducive to JEV transmission, using open-source data available from the Food and Agriculture Organization between 1961 and 2019. For 16 of 57 countries in Africa, there was evidence of existing, or an increase in, conditions potentially suitable for JE emergence. This comprised the area used for rice production and the predicted proportion of blood meals on pigs. Angola, where autochthonous transmission was reported, was one of these 16 countries. Studies to better quantify the role of alternative hosts, including domestic birds in transmission in endemic regions, would help to determine the potential for emergence elsewhere. In Africa, surveillance programs for arboviruses should not rule out the possibility of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) circulation in areas with high pig or bird density coincident with Culicine breeding habitats.