Changes in precipitation climatology for the Eastern Mediterranean using CORDEX RCMs, NHRCM and MRI-AGCM

Abstract

Mediterranean Basin is expected to be one of the regions most severely impacted by global climate change. However, the complex interactions of driving forces of climate in the region create a challenge for climate projections for the future. Findings from climate change studies support the inter-model and inter-regional variability of projections on climate change impacts. On the other hand, the studies on the evaluation of the simulation skills of high-resolution climate models for the region particularly for Turkey are still numbered. Hence, this study brings a 14-member ensemble together for the analysis of the performance efficiencies of 12 CORDEX RCMs and two high-resolution climate models, NHRCM and MRI-AGCM, of the Japanese Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). The skill of climate models to reproduce the spatial variability of baseline precipitation climatology is assessed through a benchmark with reference data from 59 ground-based meteorological stations across the study area. Additionally, potential changes in precipitation climatology in the short (2020−2030), medium (2031–2050), and long-term (2051–2100) future are studied with a 14-member ensemble analysis. Projections of 14 models show significant disagreement, especially in the short-term, but most models project a general decrease in the precipitation in the study area in medium- and long-term under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For RCP8.5 scenario, performance based weighted average of five climate models project a decrease in precipitation across the whole study area both for medium- and long-term future.