Abstract

Xinjiang is a major part of China’s arid region and its water resource is extremely scarcity. The change in precipitation amounts and extremes is of significant importance for the reliable management of regional water resources in this region. Thus, this study explored the spatiotemporal changes in extreme precipitation using the Mann–Kendall (M–K) trend analysis, mutation test, and probability distribution functions, based on the observed daily precipitation data from 89 weather stations in Xinjiang, China during 1961–2018. We also examined the correlations between extreme precipitation and climate indices using the cross-wavelet analysis. The results indicated that the climate in Xinjiang is becoming wetter and the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation has begun to strengthen, with these trends being more obvious after the 1990s. Extreme precipitation trends displayed spatial heterogeneity in Xinjiang. Extreme precipitation was mainly concentrated in mountainous areas, northern Xinjiang, and western Xinjiang. The significant increasing trend of extreme precipitation was also concentrated in the Tianshan Mountains and in northern Xinjiang. In addition, the climate indices, North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Multivariate ENSO Index and Indian Ocean Dipole Index had obvious relationships with extreme precipitation in Xinjiang. The relationships between the extreme precipitation and climate indices were not clearly positive or negative, with many correlations advanced or delayed in phase. At the same time, extreme precipitation displayed periodic changes, with a frequency of approximately 1–3 or 4–7 years. These periodic changes were more obvious after the 1990s; however, the exact mechanisms involved in this require further study.

Highlights

  • Global warming is an indisputable objective fact (IPCC, 2013)

  • Xinjiang is located in the westerly-dominated climatic regime, and the precipitation is impacted by the latitude wave propagation of the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (Huang et al, 2015; Chen et al, 2019), and the drought variability was closely related to AMO and Multivariate ENSO Index (ENSO3.4) events (Yao et al, 2019), Some studies have shown that changes in AMO can influence climate change in northwest China (Wu, Zhou & Li, 2016; Dong & Dai, 2015; Meehl et al, 2013)

  • We found clear spatial differences in the precipitation extremes of Xinjiang, where the greatest extremes occurred in some mountainous areas, northern Xinjiang and western Xinjiang

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Summary

Introduction

Global warming is an indisputable objective fact (IPCC, 2013). Within the context of global warming, extreme climate events (e.g., temperature and precipitation extremes) vary in their frequency or intensity and can affect the natural environment and human lifestyles, How to cite this article Hu W, Yao J, He Q, Chen J. 2021. Within the context of global warming, extreme climate events (e.g., temperature and precipitation extremes) vary in their frequency or intensity and can affect the natural environment and human lifestyles, How to cite this article Hu W, Yao J, He Q, Chen J. Changes in precipitation amounts and extremes across Xinjiang (northwest China) and their connection to climate indices. Precipitation extremes increase with warming because of increases in the saturation vapor pressure of water (Allen & Ingram, 2002; O’Gorman & Schneider, 2009; Trenberth et al, 2003; Van den Besselaar, Klein Tank & Buishand, 2013; Kao & Ganguly, 2011; Xu et al, 2011; Zhang et al, 2019). The IPCC (2013) reported that extreme precipitation events have become more intense and more frequent in most mid-latitude areas in the context of global warming

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