Changes in political trust in Britain during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020: integrated public opinion evidence and implications

Ben Davies,Fanny Lalot,Jacinta Babaian,Dominic Abrams,Maria S Heering,Jo Broadwood,Hilal Ozkececi,Kaya Davies Hayon,Linus Peitz

doi:10.1057/s41599-021-00850-6

Abstract

In this paper, we document changes in political trust in the UK throughout 2020 so as to consider wider implications for the ongoing handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analysed data from 18 survey organisations with measures on political trust (general, leadership, and COVID-19-related) spanning the period December 2019–October 2020. We examined the percentage of trust and distrust across time, identifying where significant changes coincide with national events. Levels of political trust were low following the 2019 UK General Election. They rose at the onset of UK lockdown imposed in March 2020 but showed persistent gradual decline throughout the remainder of the year, falling to pre-COVID levels by October 2020. Inability to sustain the elevated political trust achieved at the onset of the pandemic is likely to have made the management of public confidence and behaviour increasingly challenging, pointing to the need for strategies to sustain trust levels when handling future crises.

Highlights

At the time of writing, the coronavirus pandemic has claimed over 3 million lives globally
Based on past literature on political trust and distrust as well as early work in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, we identified two time points that could prove key in the evolution of trust in the UK during the year 2020
As briefly outlined above, we identified measures of general political trust, trust in national political leadership, and trust in the government’s effort to handle the coronavirus outbreak

Summary

Introduction

At the time of writing, the coronavirus pandemic has claimed over 3 million lives globally. The pandemic has tested the relationships between citizens and governments, sometimes exacerbating political and social tensions In this context, political trust has emerged as a key factor in people’s relation to the state, their acceptance of governmental measures, and their compliance with many restrictions. Research tracking changes in political trust often relies on yearly or even less-frequent surveys (e.g., Pew Research Center, General Social Survey, European Social Survey; see Citrin and Stoker, 2018). These can identify trends over the years and decades, but they do not capture more granular, shorter-term, changes in trust. Given that political trust can move quite quickly in times of crisis (Hasel, 2013; Hetherington and Nelson, 2003; Hunt et al, 1999), and given the rapid political responses to changing COVID-19 rates, it is valuable to understand how political trust is affected in a more compressed and dynamic timeframe

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Discussion

Conclusion