Changes in penguin distribution over the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Arc (Version 2.0)

Abstract

Robust evidence highlights major shifts in the abundance and distribution of penguins (Adelie, chinstrap, gentoo, emperor, king, and macaroni) breeding on the Antarctic Peninsula and across the Scotia Arc in FAO statistical SubAreas 48.1 to 48.4. In SubArea 48.1, Adelies and chinstraps have declined throughout most of the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) to the north of Marguerite Bay. Adelies are stable or increasing in Marguerite Bay and to the south, and stable or increasing in the eastern Antarctic Peninsula. By contrast, gentoos on the WAP (48.1) and at the South Orkney Islands (48.2) are increasing and expanding their breeding range southwards; elsewhere, their populations are highly variable but not trending significantly. In SubArea 48.3, macaronis have experienced substantial declines while kings have increased. In SubArea 48.4, chinstraps and Adelies are stable. These findings highlight considerable spatial heterogeneity in species trends, and the importance of up to date census data to underpin work to predict and monitor future trends.