Changes in life expectancy and contribution of causes of deaths and age groups in Belgium, 1997-2018

Abstract

Abstract Background Concerns have been expressed about a recent decreasing growth of life expectancy (LE) in some developed countries. This study examines whether a slowing down in the LE increase was observed in Belgium between 1997 and 2018, and describes the contribution of causes of deaths (COD) and age groups to the 2000-2015 change in LE. Methods Changes in yearly LE increase were analyzed by linear regression and joinpoint regression analysis. The contribution of age and COD to the change in LE in Belgium was measured with the Arriaga decomposition method using 3-year moving average to reduce random fluctuations over years. Results No significant breakpoint was identified. The slope of the linear regression of annual LE changes in men was practically flat (slope = -0.0002, CI: -0.014, 0.013) and slightly, but not significantly, decreasing in women (slope = -0.002, CI: -0.019, 0.015). A larger increase in LE was observed in men compared to women and in people aged 70 years and over compared to younger ages. The COD contributing the most to the increase in LE was ischemic heart disease in men and in women. It was followed by transport accident and lung cancer in men and by cerebrovascular diseases and other circulatory diseases in women. Dementia, Alzheimer, and Parkinson contributed negatively to the LE increase in men and in women. The largest negative contributor was lung cancer in women. Conclusions In contrast to neighboring countries, no evidence for a significant stalling of life expectancy were found in Belgium between 1997 and 2018. Progress in reducing the major causes of deaths (cardiovascular diseases, some cancers, and transport accidents) have contributed to the increase of LE, but some COD are impeding further progress, particularly lung cancer in women. Key messages No evidence of stalling life expectancy in Belgium between 1997 and 2018. Monitoring causes of deaths is crucial to identify conditions impeding progress in life expectancy.