Changes in illicit cocaine hydrochloride processing identified and revealed through multivariate analysis of cocaine signature data

Abstract

For nearly 30years, the methods utilized in illicit cocaine hydrochloride production have remained relatively consistent. Cocaine hydrochloride is typically produced one kilogram at a time. As a result, each individual kilogram is unique and distinct from other kilograms in any particular seizure based on the total alkaloid profile, occluded solvent profile, and isotopic signature. Additionally, multi-kilogram cocaine seizures are often comprised of cocaine from several different coca growing regions. There has been a documented shift in this type of processing based on the recent analysis of a large cocaine seizure in the Eastern Pacific. Signature analyses of samples from 21kg randomly selected from a 517kg seizure were virtually identical. Triplicate analyses of each sample via gas chromatography with flame ionization detection, static headspace gas chromatography mass spectrometry, and isotope ratio mass spectrometry were completed. An initial outlier evaluation of the data and an in-depth univariate analysis indicated there was no statistically significant difference among the 21 samples at the 95% confidence interval. Principal components analysis did reveal consistent minor deviations between the samples and known authentic data from the Nariño coca growing region of Colombia. These deviations were only observed on the latter principal components and could be explained by differences in solvent selection during cocaine hydrochloride processing. Chemical analyses in addition to a thorough statistical evaluation suggest a shift in the traditional small-batch method of cocaine processing to a multi-kilogram, high throughput approach.