Abstract
This paper used trade data with the year 2001-2018 to construct the global manufacturing multi-layer trade network, analyzed the characteristics of the network and predicted the development trend of the network. The results show that global manufacturing trade has been on the rise and focus on the increase of trade flow; trade be more likely to cooperate with core economic or trade organization; the orientation of returning to manufacturing makes a positive impact on manufacturing trade; network accessibility and compactness are strong, and it tends to be mature. Core-periphery analysis reveals that the United States and China will be the core countries of high, medium and low technology products. The trade forecast results show that the United States and China will conduct fierce manufacturing competition, and the world will form three manufacturing trade dominant regions of North American three countries, Asia-pacific cluster and European cluster.
Highlights
To manufacturing as the core foundation of the real economy is to maintain national competitiveness and the healthy development of the economy, has become the consensus of the world
The results show that global manufacturing trade has been on the rise and focus on the increase of trade flow; trade be more likely to cooperate with core economic or trade organization; the orientation of returning to manufacturing makes a positive impact on manufacturing trade; network accessibility and compactness are strong, and it tends to be mature
The trade forecast results show that the United States and China will conduct fierce manufacturing competition, and the world will form three manufacturing trade dominant regions of North American three countries, Asia-pacific cluster and European cluster
Summary
To manufacturing as the core foundation of the real economy is to maintain national competitiveness and the healthy development of the economy, has become the consensus of the world. After the 2008 global financial crisis, the importance of the real economy was re-cognition, a new round of technological and industrial revolution was on the rise, competition pattern and development trend of manufacturing industry were facing a major adjustment (IMF, 2019). Manufacturing trade is currently the most representative and can reflect changes in the current international trade pattern. How to track the evolution of manu-. C. Qu facturing trade and a clearer understanding of the status of various trading countries in the overall trade pattern is an important aspect of the current empirical study of returning to manufacturing
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