Abstract
Spring ephemerals in the Central Appalachians are a key component of deciduous forest communities and can be indicators of shifting phenology due to climate changes in this ecosystem. The objectives of this study were to (1) determine if there have been any changes in date of flowering for the Cutleaf Toothwort (Cardamine concatenata) and Yellow Trout Lily (Erythronium americanum) in West Virginia over the last 111 years; (2) determine which climatic factors affect the blooming date of these perennial, spring ephemeral wildflowers; and (3) evaluate the effect of elevation on changing blooming dates using herbarium specimens and photographs from 1904 to 2015. Both species are widespread throughout the woodlands of eastern North America. Both species have significantly advanced their spring flowering over the last century (overline{x} = 0.91 days/decade). Spring temperature was the strongest predictor of blooming date (2.91 and 3.44 days earlier/1 °C increase in spring temperature, respectively). Flowers at < 500 m elevation bloomed earlier and demonstrated a stronger shift in flowering date over time than flowers at > 1000 m elevations. Lower elevations, higher spring and winter temperatures, and low amounts of precipitation were associated with earlier spring flowering. This research demonstrates the plasticity of phenological response to a variety of climatic variables, the usefulness of using herbarium specimens to reconstruct flowering dates over a topographically variable area, and the contrasting effects of climate change on high elevation regions of West Virginia.
Highlights
Climate affects the phenology of plants and animals, and changes in climate pose possible risks for phenological mismatches and shifts in vegetative communities (Memmott et al 2007; Crimmins et al 2008) if species cannot shift their distributions in synchrony with the changing climate (Ash et al 2016)
Variation in temperature and precipitation exists within West Virginia and change over time is evident in some parts of the state more than others for spring temperature (Fig. 3a), winter temperature (Fig. 3b), and spring precipitation (Fig. 3c)
Spring and winter temperatures have especially increased in the Eastern Panhandle region of West Virginia as compared to the rest of the state, and precipitation has increased throughout the state
Summary
Climate affects the phenology of plants and animals, and changes in climate pose possible risks for phenological mismatches and shifts in vegetative communities (Memmott et al 2007; Crimmins et al 2008) if species cannot shift their distributions in synchrony with the changing climate (Ash et al 2016). Flowering phenology can be influenced by a number of abiotic factors, including increasing spring temperatures (Primack et al 2004) [especially in the months before flowering (MillerRushing and Primack 2008)], spring precipitation (Matthews and Mazer 2016), elevation (Crimmins et al 2011; Cufar et al 2012), and snowmelt (Inouye 2008; Livensperger et al 2016). Geographic location, including elevation, is a strong contributing factor in the sensitivity of plant phenology (Matthews and Mazer 2016), due to its association with microclimates, which can influence temperature or the risk of frost damage (Inouye 2008). Crimmins et al (2011) found that plants in California shifted to lower elevations despite increases in temperature, due to decreased water availability in higher elevations. It is important to examine latitude in conjunction with elevation as factors influencing phenological shifts
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