Changes in Flood Risk to Cultural Assets Under Climate Change - A Case Study of  Kinmen

Abstract

Amidst global climate change, extreme weather events are becoming increasingly common. The international community has established 'preventive conservation' of cultural assets as a core strategy. Nations are actively devising measures to counter the potential impacts of climate change on cultural assets and developing related adaptive strategies. Particularly noteworthy is the often-overlooked potential risk of natural disasters to cultural assets, which poses a severe threat to these irreplaceable assets. This study focuses on the Kinmen area of Taiwan and utilizes data provided by the Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Adaptation Knowledge Platform (TCCIP). Employing flood risk maps as the primary analytical tool, it delves into the changing risks faced by cultural assets under climate change and explores how to implement preventive conservation strategies. The research reveals that during the baseline period (1980-2015), Kinmen had 287 cultural assets, with 4 facing the risk of flooding. According to the extreme weather scenario AR5 (RCP 8.5) provided by TCCIP, it is predicted that various regions will experience more intense rainfall conditions in the mid-21st century (2041-2065), increasing the risk of flooding and leading to more cultural assets (18 in total) being threatened. Therefore, through meteorological data projection and disaster risk assessment, this study advocates for early preventive conservation measures for high-risk cultural assets, aiming to mitigate the potential impact of climate change on these valuable assets.