Changes in flight period predict trends in abundance of Massachusetts butterflies.

Abstract

Phenological shifts are well-documented in the ecological literature. However, their significance for changes in demography and abundance is less clear. We used 27years of citizen science monitoring to quantify trends in phenology and relative abundance across 89 butterfly species. We calculated shifts in phenology using quantile regression and shifts in relative abundance using list length analysis and counts from field trips. Elongated activity periods within a year were the strongest predictor of increases in relative abundance. These changes may be driven in part by changes in voltinism, as this association was stronger in multivoltine species. Some species appear to be adding a late-season generation, whereas other species appear to be adding a spring generation, revealing a possible shift from vagrant to resident. Our results emphasise the importance of evaluating phenological changes throughout species' flight period and understanding the consequences for such climate-related changes on viability or population dynamics.