Abstract
Scientific prediction of critical time points of the global temperature increases and assessment of the associated changes in extreme climate events can provide essential guidance for agricultural production, regional governance, and disaster mitigation. Using daily temperature and precipitation model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the time points of the temperature that will increase by 1.5 and 2.0°C were assessed under three different scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). To characterize the change of extreme climate events in the rice-growing regions in China, six indices were designed, and a time slice method was used. An analysis from an ensemble of CMIP6 models showed that under SSP245, the global mean temperature will rise by 1.5°C/2.0°C by approximately 2030/2049. A global warming of 2.0°C does not occur under SSP126. The time for a 1.5°C/2.0°C warming all becomes earlier under SSP585. Under 1.5°C of global warming, the number of warm days (TX90p), rice heat damage index (Ha), consecutive dry days (CDD), 5-day maximum precipitation (Rx5day), and number of annual total extreme precipitation events (R99pTOT) will clearly increase, while the number of cold damage (Cd) events will decrease. All the indices show a strong variability regionally. For example, the CDD increased significantly in the Central China and South China rice-growing regions. The monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation increased by as much as 6.8 mm in the Southwest China rice-growing region.
Highlights
Affected by human activities, the global climate is undergoing changes characterized by warming
Time Point When Global Temperature Increases by 1.5◦C/2◦C
This article is mainly based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data, and it explores the time points when the global temperature is projected to increase by 1.5 and 2.0◦C under different social scenarios
Summary
The global climate is undergoing changes characterized by warming. A 1.5◦C special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report estimated that human-induced warming has caused a temperature rise of approximately 1.0[0.8–1.2]◦C above the preindustrial level. A range of studies has shown that warming temperatures will lead to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (Tian-Yun et al, 2018; Almazroui et al, 2020; Wu et al, 2020). Changes of Extreme Climate Events the Paris Agreement in December 2015. IPCC reports (IPCC, 2018) have pointed out that under the background of global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have increased significantly in the past few decades. The frequency of extreme weather will continue to increase. As the temperature continues to rise, the number of days of high-temperature heat waves over a certain threshold will increase nonlinearly with increasing temperature
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