Changes in Estimating the Wild Boar Carcasses Sampling Effort: Applying the EFSA ASF Exit Strategy by Means of the WBC-Counter Tool

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating disease, resulting in the high mortality of domestic and wild pigs, spreading quickly around the world. Ensuring the prevention and early detection of the disease is even more crucial given the absence of licensed vaccines. As suggested by the European Commission, those countries which intend to provide evidence of freedom need to speed up passive surveillance of their wild boar populations. If this kind of surveillance is well-regulated in domestic pig farms, the country-specific activities to be put in place for wild populations need to be set based on wild boar density, hunting bags, the environment, and financial resources. Following the indications of the official EFSA opinion 2021, a practical interpretation of the strategy was implemented based on the failure probabilities of wrongly declaring the freedom of an area even if the disease is still present but undetected. This work aimed at providing a valid, applicative example of an exit strategy based on two different approaches: the first uses the wild boar density to estimate the number of carcasses need to complete the exit strategy, while the second estimates it from the number of wild boar hunted and tested. A practical free access tool, named WBC-Counter, was developed to automatically calculate the number of needed carcasses. The practical example was developed using the ASF data from Sardinia (Italian island). Sardinia is ASF endemic from 43 years, but the last ASFV detection dates back to 2019. The island is under consideration for ASF eradication declaration. The subsequent results provide a practical example for other countries in approaching the EFSA exit strategy in the best choices for its on-field application.