Changes in ENSO-monsoon relations from early to recent decades during onset, peak and withdrawal phases of Indian summer monsoon

Abstract

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomenon in the tropical Pacific and an important modulator of the spatio-temporal variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Here, we explore the impact of ENSO during onset (June), peak (July–August) and withdrawal (September) phases of ISMR for the period 1951–2015, by studying the changes in the ENSO-monsoon relationship from early decades (1951–1980) to recent decades (1986–2015). We observe noticeable changes in the ENSO-monsoon relationship from the early to recent decades during all the three phases. During El Nino events, rainfall over most of the Indian regions is significantly increased in recent decades during onset phase, but a significant decrease in rainfall is observed during peak and withdrawal phases. On the other hand, the rainfall during La Nina events is significantly decreased over the monsoon core zone of India during all the three phases. A significant increase (decrease) in sea surface temperature (SST) is observed over the central equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean during El Nino (La Nina) events in recent decades. These changes differ from one phase to another and related to the observed rainfall patterns over the Indian region. Apart from these, the changes in the anomalies of low level circulation and Walker circulation over the Indo-Pacific domain are also linked to the changes in rainfall during the ENSO events, with most significant relationship during the onset phase.