Changes in Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Aspirations for Energy Independence: Sectoral Analysis of Uses of Natural Gas in Ukrainian Economy

Olexandr Yemelyanov,Myroslava Kusiy,Olena Zahoretska,Anastasiya Symak,Lilia Lesyk,Tetyana Petrushka,Roman Lesyk

doi:10.3390/en12244724

Abstract

The main objective of the research is to assess the ability of the Ukrainian economy and its individual industries to ensure, in the conditions of economic growth, a stable reduction of natural gas consumption and, consequently, to reduce dependence on its imports. Six types of relationships were identified between the change in sectoral added value and the change in the consumption of certain energy resources, in particular natural gas. The conditions are established under which the growth of sectoral added value is accompanied by a decrease in the consumption of certain energy resources. The index of sectoral efficiency of the use of certain energy resources was proposed and a model of the decomposition of the growth rate of this indicator was constructed. Quantitative indicators of measuring economic barriers on the way to introduction of energy-saving technologies are presented. Conditions under which economic growth is accompanied by a decrease in the level of dependence of the economy on imports of energy resources are modeled. The dynamics of natural gas consumption by sectors of the Ukrainian economy is analyzed. It is proved that reduction of natural gas consumption due to increased energy efficiency occurs mainly in industries with an average value of share of the cost of purchasing this energy in the total operating expenses. An estimation is undertaken of the possibility of achieving independence of the Ukrainian economy from the import of natural gas in different scenarios of changing main parameters that determine the probability of such an achievement.

Highlights

Nowadays, many countries face the problem of dependence on imports from foreign energy sources
[13] we found that economic growth encourages energy consumption in countries that are members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), both in the short- and long-term perspective
In order to ensure the energy-saving economic growth by particular energy resource in a certain economic sector, it is necessary to fulfill two basic conditions: (1) the sectoral index of value added per unit of physical volume of production should exceed the sectoral index of volumes of consumption of a certain energy resource per unit of physical volume of production

Summary

Introduction

Many countries face the problem of dependence on imports from foreign energy sources. Dependence on imported energy can have political consequences if this dependence is used as an instrument of political pressure on the governments of those countries that import energy sources. In this regard, in recent years, many countries, in particular European Union (EU) countries [1] and the United States [2,3], have developed and have implemented government programs for the purpose of reducing their dependence on imported energy supplies. There is a certain contradiction between the aim of reducing dependence of the economy on imported energy and the necessity of ensuring stable economic growth. Reducing power consumption, in particular through the development of renewable (green) energy [4] and improving energy efficiency [5], are crucial for achieving energy independence

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