Abstract
Currently, the effect of the 2022 nationwide coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) wave on the perioperative prognosis of surgical patients in China is unclear. Thus, we aimed to explore its influence on postoperative morbidity and mortality in surgical patients. An ambispective cohort study was conducted at Xijing Hospital, China. We collected 10-day time-series data from December 29 until January 7 for the 2018-2022 period. The primary outcome was major postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo class III-V). The association between COVID-19 exposure and postoperative prognosis was explored by comparing consecutive 5-year data at the population level and by comparing patients with and without COVID-19 exposure at the patient level. The entire cohort consisted of 3350 patients (age: 48.5 ± 19.2 years), including 1759 females (52.5%). Overall, 961 (28.7%) underwent emergency surgery, and 553 (16.5%) had COVID-19 exposure (from the 2022 cohort). At the population level, major postoperative complications occurred in 5.9% (42/707), 5.7% (53/935), 5.1% (46/901), 9.4% (11/117), and 22.0% (152/690) patients in the 2018-2022 cohorts, respectively. After adjusting for potential confounding factors, the 2022 cohort (80% patients with COVID-19 history) had a significantly higher postoperative major complication risk than did the 2018 cohort (adjusted risk difference [aRD], 14.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.5-18.4%); adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 8.19 (95% CI, 5.24-12.81)). At the patient level, the incidence of major postoperative complications was significantly greater in patients with (24.6%, 136/553) than that in patients without COVID-19 history (6.0% [168/2797]; aRD, 17.8% [95% CI, 13.6-22.1%]; aOR, 7.89 [95% CI, 5.76-10.83]). Secondary outcomes of postoperative pulmonary complications were consistent with primary findings. These findings were verified through sensitivity analyses using time-series data projections and propensity score matching. Based on a single-center observation, patients with recent COVID-19 exposure were likely to have a high incidence of major postoperative complications. NCT05677815 at https://clinicaltrials.gov/.
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