Abstract

Fungal spores are known to cause allergic sensitization. Recent studies reported a strong association between asthma symptoms and thunderstorms that could be explained by an increase in airborne fungal spore concentrations. Just before and during thunderstorms the values of meteorological parameters rapidly change. Therefore, the goal of this study was to create a predictive model for hourly concentrations of atmospheric Alternaria and Cladosporium spores on days with summer storms in Szczecin (Poland) based on meteorological conditions. For this study we have chosen all days of June, July and August (2004–2009) with convective thunderstorms. There were statistically significant relationships between spore concentration and meteorological parameters: positive for air temperature and ozone content while negative for relative humidity. In general, before a thunderstorm, air temperature and ozone concentration increased, which was accompanied by a considerable increase in spore concentration. During and after a storm, relative humidity increased while both air temperature ozone concentration along with spore concentrations decreased. Artificial neural networks (ANN) were used to assess forecasting possibilities. Good performance of ANN models in this study suggest that it is possible to predict spore concentrations from meteorological variables 2 h in advance and, thus, warn people with spore-related asthma symptoms about the increasing abundance of airborne fungi on days with storms.

Highlights

  • The number of days with thunderstorms in Poland depends on the region, and varies between 15 days in the northwestern part of the country and 33 days in the southeastern part

  • Preliminary data analysis revealed a clear pattern in meteorological parameters as well as in Cladosporium and Alternaria spore concentrations repeated independently of the time when a storm occurred, shown in the example of one day, 09 August 2006, in an afternoon storm (Fig. 1a,b)

  • In general before a thunderstorm, air temperature and ozone concentration increased, which was accompanied by a considerable increase in spore concentration

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Summary

Introduction

The number of days with thunderstorms in Poland depends on the region, and varies between 15 days in the northwestern part of the country and 33 days in the southeastern part. The number in any individual region may change considerably from one year to another. This is typical for the transitional climate of Poland. The highest concentrations of Alternaria and Cladosporium spores occur during summer from June to September in many parts of Europe, e.g. Italy (Ballero et al 1992), Sweden (Hjelmroos 1993), Denmark (Larsen and Gravesen 1991) and in many regions of Poland, e.g. Lublin (Konopińska 2004), Kraków, Poznań, Warszawa, Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski and Zakopane (Stępalska et al 1999). The fungal spores of Alternaria and Cladosporium species are known to cause allergic sensitization and seasonal asthma symptoms. A recent study from Canada reported a strong association between emergency visits for asthma and thunderstorms and suggested that the mechanism might be through an increase in fungal spore counts (Dales et al 2003).

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