Changes in China’s Influence on Korean Exports by Production Phase

Abstract

I estimate the impact of China’s GDP on Korean exports to the world and Korean exports to China based on the VAR model. It is found that the responses of Korean exports to shocks in China’s GDP are very different by export type (exports of raw materials, capital goods, and consumption goods). Reflecting the trend that the proportion of capital goods in Korean exports is increasing, Korean exports of capital goods respond most sensitively to these shocks among the three export types. Another finding is that Korean exports of raw materials do not respond very sensitively relative to the other export types. These findings are almost same as those for Korean exports to China in terms of response to GDP shocks. In addition, Korean exports to the world and Korean exports to China are more responsive to China’s GDP growth shocks over time.