Changes in Capacity of China’s Agriculture to Feed its Population

Abstract

In order to better understand whether China’s agriculture can feed its population, and how much Chinese demand for food depends on the world, the changes in capacity of China’s agriculture to feed the nation were explored. Moreover, the main food sources of energy and nutrients for the Chinese and the contribution of imported agricultural products were studied. The results show that for energy, self-sufficiency in cereals was achieved in 1970. Energy, protein, fat and superior protein provided by self-produced agricultural products could also meet the nation’s demand since 1983, 1994, 1998 and 2002 respectively. Due to opening up, the supply of energy and nutrients increased and met the nation’s demand ahead of time. Cereals have been the main source of energy and nutrients for the Chinese, but their importance has decreased. Energy and nutrients from vegetable products are substantial; however, the share of energy and nutrients from animal products has increased. The contribution rate of energy from imported products was low, but that of fat and superior protein increased rapidly and has been over the warning level of food security since 2000. Cereals, meats, eggs and vegetables, with a strong self-support capacity, are the most important food sources for the Chinese. It indicates that China has been depending on domestic production to meet its demand up to now. However, with growth in the population, optimization of nutritional structure and imbalance of the agriculture structure, the nation will have a great demand for the world’s agricultural products.