Changes in Biston robustum and Camellia japonica distributions, according to climate change predictions in South Korea

Abstract

We investigated the current and potential spatial distributions and habitable areas of Biston robustum and Camellia japonica in South Korea in order to provide useful data for the conservation of C. japonica and minimize the damage caused by B. robustum. It was predicted that, by 2070, although B. robustum would be widely distributed throughout the Korean Peninsula, except for the western and eastern coastal areas, it would be narrowly distributed along the Sokcho-si and Goseong-gun coastlines in Gangwon Province. C. japonica is currently located along the southern coastline but its critical habitable area is predicted to gradually disappear by 2070. Assessment of the potential distribution probabilities of B. robustum and C. japonica revealed that the area under the curve (AUC) values were 0.995 and 0.991, respectively, which indicate high precision and applicability of the model. Major factors influencing the potential distribution of B. robustum included precipitation of wettest quarter and annual precipitation (BIO16 and BIO12), whereas annual mean temperature and mean temperature of wettest quarter (BIO1 and BIO8) were important variables for explaining C. japonica distribution. Overlapping areas of B. robustum and C. japonica were 11,782 km, 5447 km, and 870 km for the current, 2050-predicted, and 2070-predicted conditions, respectively, clearly showing a dramatic decrease in area. Although it is predicted that B. robustum would cause continuous damage to C. japonica in the southern part of the Korean Peninsula, such impacts might diminish over time and become negligible in the future.