Changes in atmospheric rivers and moisture transport over the Northeast Pacific and western North America in response to ENSO diversity

Abstract

The year-to-year changes in atmospheric rivers (ARs) and moisture transport over the northeast Pacific and western North America are investigated during December to February (DJF) from 1979/80 to 2015/16. Changes in AR frequency, intensity, and landfall characteristics are compared between three ENSO phases: central Pacific El Nino (CPEN), eastern Pacific El Nino (EPEN), and La Nina (NINA). During EPEN events, the subtropical jet extends to the south and east with an anomalous cyclonic flow around a deeper Aleutian Low. More moisture is transported towards North America and AR frequency is increased over western North America. In CPEN events, the Aleutian low shifts further southward relative to its position in EPEN, resulting in an increase in the frequency and intensity of landfalling ARs over the southwestern US. In NINA events, the landfalling AR frequency is reduced associated with anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the eastern North Pacific. We diagnose the contribution of multiple factors to the seasonal mean moisture transport using moisture budgets. During the three ENSO phases, the change in low-frequency circulation (dynamical process) is the leading contributor to the seasonal mean moisture flux divergence, while the contributions of the synoptic anomalies and the change in moisture anomaly (thermodynamic process) are not significant along the west coast of North America.