Changes in atmospheric circulation and evapotranspiration are reducing rainfall in the Brazilian Cerrado

Abstract

Here we analyze the trends of rainfall and the frequency of rainy days over the Brazilian Cerrado between 1960 and 2021 in four distinct periods according to the seasonal patterns over the region. We also evaluated trends in evapotranspiration, atmospheric pressure, winds, and atmospheric humidity over the Cerrado to elucidate the possible reasons for the detected trends. We recorded a significant reduction in rainfall and frequency of rainy days in the northern and central Cerrado regions for all periods except at the beginning of the dry season. The most pronounced negative trends were recorded during the dry season and the beginning of the wet season, where we recorded reductions of up to 50% in total rainfall and the number of rainy days. These findings are associated with the intensification of the South Atlantic Subtropical Anticyclone, which has been shifting atmospheric circulation and raising regional subsidence. Moreover, during the dry season and the beginning of the wet season, there was a reduction in regional evapotranspiration, which also potentially contributed to the rainfall reduction. Our results suggest an expansion and intensification of the dry season in the region, potentially bringing broad environmental and social impacts that transcend the Cerrado boundaries.