Changes in agricultural resource input and productivity in Kenya and China

Abstract

Both Kenya and China are facing great challenges in feeding their populations; this is particularly problematic in Kenya, where the population will be projected to increase by 1.4 times from 2018 to 2100. Food production has been greatly improved in China, but it still lags behind in Kenya. In this study, we systematically compared the changes in agricultural resources and crop/livestock productivity, as well as their relationships with the resource input levels and agricultural production structure, to try to provide insights into reducing food insecurity and poverty in Kenya. Our results revealed that Kenya had 2-3 times more natural resources, such as cropland, grassland, and annual precipitation, per capita than did China in the 1960s, which was similar to the daily food energy and protein supply. Currently, Kenya still has higher natural resources per capita, but has lower food security and quality when compared to China. This is due to the continued rapid increase in crop and livestock productivity regarding energy and protein production in China. From 1961 to 2017, crop protein productivity increased by 44% in Kenya, while in China it increased by 282%. Our results showed that crop and livestock productivity positively correlated with the input of fertilizers, concentrate feeds, machinery, and pesticides, as seen in China. Meanwhile, the structure of crop and livestock production also showed a large impact on the changes in productivity, such as the harvest area of vegetables/fruits to the total harvest area and the ratio of monogastric animals for livestock production. Overall, both agrochemicals and structure have strong impacts on the increase in productivity, and these could be potential options in Kenya to improve productivity due to the low input of resources into crop and livestock production.