Abstract
AbstractAimTo establish a chronology for late Quaternary avian extinction, extirpation and persistence in the Bahamas, thereby testing the relative roles of climate change and human impact as causes of extinction.LocationGreat Abaco Island (Abaco), Bahamas, West Indies.MethodsWe analysed the resident bird community as sampled by Pleistocene (> 11.7 ka) and Holocene (< 11.7 ka) fossils. Each species was classified as extinct (lost globally), extirpated (gone from Abaco but persists elsewhere), or extant (still resident on Abaco). We compared patterns of extinction, extirpation and persistence to independent estimates of climate and sea level for glacial (late Pleistocene) and interglacial (Holocene) times.ResultsOf 45 bird species identified in Pleistocene fossils, 25 (56%) no longer occur on Abaco (21 extirpated, 4 extinct). Of 37 species recorded in Holocene deposits, 15 (14 extirpated, 1 extinct; total 41%) no longer exist on Abaco. Of the 30 extant species, 12 were recovered as both Pleistocene and Holocene fossils, as were 9 of the 30 extirpated or extinct species. Most of the extinct or extirpated species that were only recorded from Pleistocene contexts are characteristic of open habitats (pine woodlands or grasslands); several of the extirpated species are currently found only where winters are cooler than in the modern or Pleistocene Bahamas. In contrast, most of the extinct or extirpated species recorded from Holocene contexts are habitat generalists.Main conclusionsThe fossil evidence suggests two main times of late Quaternary avian extirpation and extinction in the Bahamas. The first was during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition (PHT; 15–9 ka) and was fuelled by climate change and associated changes in sea level and island area. The second took place during the late Holocene (< 4 ka, perhaps primarily < 1 ka) and can be attributed to human impact. Although some species lost during the PHT are currently found where climates are cooler and drier than in the Bahamas today, a taxonomically and ecologically diverse set of species persisted through that major climate change but did not survive the past millennium of human presence.
Highlights
Estimating and projecting population trends is essential to ascertaining threat status and developing conservation strategies
We focused on density-independent models throughout for two important reasons: 1) we wished to investigate the effects of process error, measurement error, and data length on modeling declining populations that are less likely to be driven by density dependence, and 2) we wished to compare and contrast our results with those in key papers which do not include density dependence [23, 25]
We found that scalar models can project percent declines quite well relative to matrix models for short-lived organisms with simple life histories, like the ones studied here, given their comparable precision and less biased predicted declines
Summary
Estimating and projecting population trends is essential to ascertaining threat status and developing conservation strategies. PVA has been used to inform decisions to list species under the United States Endangered Species Act including the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina), and is commonly used to identify conservation management strategies, for recovery planning, and for habitat conservation plans for threatened species [5,6,7]. Despite their long-standing use, the question of how to construct and apply PVAs is still an area of active research and debate, especially under the high environmental variability and data uncertainty that characterize most conservation applications [5,8]
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