Changes and Potential Sources of Atmospheric Black Carbon Concentration in Shanghai over the Past 40 Years Based on MERRA-2 Reanalysis Data

Abstract

As an important component of atmospheric aerosols, black carbon (BC) has a great influence on the regional and global radiation balance, climate, and human health due to its small particle size, large specific surface area, and radiative forcing potential. Here, the spatio-temporal characteristics of atmospheric BC were investigated based on modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis data and ground observation data during 1980-2019 in Shanghai, a highly urbanized city in mainland China. The influences of local emissions and regional transmission on regional-scale BC concentrations were examined using the M-K trend test, backward trajectory analysis, and the potential source contribution function (PSCF). The results showed that:① MERRA-2 BC and ground observation datasets showed good consistency (R∈[0.68, 0.72]), indicating that MERRA-2 reanalysis data can be used to reveal long-term changes in ground-level atmospheric BC concentrations; ② Atmospheric BC concentrations in Shanghai over the past 40 years can be divided into three stages:a "low value" stage of slow growth[1980-1986, (1.75±0.17) μg·m-3], a relatively stable "median value" stage[1987-1999, (2.18 ±0.07) μg·m-3], and a fluctuating "high value" stage[2000-2019, (3.07±0.31) μg·m-3]. Seasonally, Shanghai's BC concentrations generally show a "U" pattern with low concentrations in summer and high concentrations in winter. As a result of black carbon emissions from marine diesel engines and other engines used for water transportation, a small peak also occurs in July; ③ The diagnostic quality ratio of air pollutants and the bivariate correlation analysis[R(BC-NO2)>R(BC-CO)>R(BC-SO2)] indicated that traffic emissions were the main sources of atmospheric BC in Shanghai, especially by heavy diesel vehicles; ④ The backward trajectory and PSCF analyses found that the air mass of Shanghai in summer was dominated by a clean sea breeze, accounting for 77.18%. In contrast, during the other seasons, more than 50% of the air mass came from the north. The potential source regions of atmospheric BC in Shanghai are mainly distributed in eastern China, expanding outwards and centering on the Yangtze River Delta, and the expansion direction is consistent with the directions of the backward trajectories.