Changes and divergences of urban climate adaptability in Pearl River Delta: spatiotemporal patterns and driving forces

Abstract

ABSTRACT With global change and urban expansion, the city’s vulnerable to climate-induced disasters is increasing significantly. Addressing this challenge has become a global priority and there is an urgent need to improve the resilience and adaptability. We focused on the climate adaptability of cities in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in the southeastern China, and employed the entropy-weighting method and TOPSIS model to assess city’s adaptability to climate in three levels, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptation. Then, we applied the Obstacle and Geodetector model to identify the challenges of the cities and elucidate the primary drivers of the changes in climate adaptability from 2000 to 2020. This study shows a significant increase in climate adaptation within the PRD region over the past two decades, especially for economy-prosperous cities such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou that show significant improvement. Spatially, central cities are more adaptable than western cities. The density of urban drainage pipes, doctors per 1000 people, and GDP per capita are the main obstacles. The explanatory power of the number of invention patents and fixed investments persists in surpassing that of the heat index and other factors. This interaction underscores the imperative for integrated strategies aimed at fostering both socio-economic development and climate adaptability. It emphasizes the need to tailor urban planning approaches to the specific characteristics of cities in different locations and stages of development, thereby enhancing their capacity to adapt to climate change.