Change in the size distribution of UK firms

Abstract

This paper examines the extent of change and stability in the population of UK firms through time in terms of its size distribution, as defined by number of employees. It was empirically found that the distribution of employment by firm size remained surprisingly constant over the 1987–1989 period. A major implication of this finding is that in times of very high net job creation (involving high gross job creation and loss), factors are at work in the economy to keep the population distribution of firms (in terms of employment concentrations) more or less stable. It is hypothesised that a ‘natural’ concentration exists for each different size band, and that as change takes place, the proportion of total employment based in the size band will tend towards this natural level. The rise in the proportion of employment in small firms, and the comparatively high job creation ability of small firms in recent times has come about in part because of negative rather than positive macro-economic influences. In recession, small firms in aggregate in spite of their individual volatility, are the most resilient. In prosperous times they do not increase their proportion of employment share, while in times of recession they do. Our results imply that large firms have a very significant, if not the most significant, bearing upon aggregate employment trends. On the other hand, small firms inherently have more potential to create jobs than large firms. The majority of public expenditure and legislative support for UK business is directed at large firms, as a result of culture and tradition. Even with the benefit of this support, large firms in recent decades have still performed badly, in job generation terms. In contrast, small firms have shown an inherent advantage in their ability to create jobs. A shift of government expenditure and legislative support from large to small firms would further enhance and realise the potential of small firms to benefit the economy and create jobs.